Why Are Some People Never Satisfied?

One of my favorite things to do these days is tackle questions that clearly have no right answer.  I also thoroughly enjoy using my 0 hours of Philosophy and Psychology background to speak authoritatively on questions where both disciplines would be extremely beneficial.

So given I’m admitting there really isn’t a right answer and I have no formal training in how to think about it, why do I feel the need to write about why some people are never satisfied?

Simple…this question spans nearly all aspects of life from jobs to relationships to athletics and I was a bit perplexed when I didn’t feel satisfied after my solid race performance last weekend.   

We’ve all been there.  You’ve got a good job that you’re satisfied with overall, but wonder whether you should start the business that’s been in the back of your mind.  Maybe you’re dating someone and things are going well but you’re not sure how well things should be going before you’re ready to pop the question. 

Or maybe you just finished a Sprint Triathlon and met your goal of finishing in the top 15% but somehow that didn’t make you feel satisfied.  That’s the situation I’m in and I’ve started to wonder why…

After all, I set out as part of Schmeis35for35 to finish in the top 15% in a Sprint Tri and I finally did it.  Shouldn’t I feel great?  I just accomplished another one of my goals and I’m now up to 7 out of 35 complete. 

On the surface, it seems I should feel extremely satisfied but I found any hint of satisfaction lasted only a few seconds and quickly turned to disappointment that I didn’t do even better. 

Let’s walk through a summary of my race and then revisit the satisfaction question.

The Swim

It all started with a short 250 yards in a pool.  As always, participants were asked to submit their 100 meter swim time so that race organizers could seed everyone from fastest to slowest and prevent log jams created by slower swimmers. 

The seeding process is great in theory but ridiculous in practice.  The basic problem is that racers don’t have an incentive to tell the truth; they only have an incentive to make sure they don’t get stuck behind a slower swimmer.  As a result, I find that many people blatantly lie about how fast they swim just so they don’t get stuck behind slow pokes. 

Of course, the downside of lying doesn’t impact the swimmer who lies but instead impacts all the other swimmers who get held up.  These people are the worst…it’s like the clueless people boarding airplanes that stand in the middle of the aisle and don’t realize they’re holding up the entire plane from boarding.

I was seeded 62nd out of 420 based on the time I submitted.  Just before the start, person #60 said to me “hey man, you look like you’re really fast.  I’m worried you may catch me.”  I asked how fast he expected to swim the 250 yards and he said 4:15 which was literally 40 seconds slower than what I expected to go.  He then said he exaggerated a bit when submitting his time.  No dude, you didn’t exaggerate…you lied your ass off. 

Anyway, at 7:30am the race started and the #1 seed swimmer was released followed every 12 seconds by the rest of the field one at a time.  After the first 61 people, it was finally my turn and I went out blazing.  At the 60 yard mark, I already passed the person in front of me who started with a 12 second lead.  By the 125 yard mark, I passed the idiot who told me I looked fast.  Keep in mind, this Michael Phelps wannabe started 24 seconds before me. He was basically swimming in the middle of the lane making it difficult to go by but I essentially just swam over him. 

By the end, I had passed 3 people when the whole purpose of the seeding process is to avoid the need to pass anyone.  I exited the pool in 3:40 and crossed the timing mat a few seconds later at 3:55.  It’s completely ridiculous that I had to pass 3 people over a swim that was less than 4 minutes long. 

I think they should penalize racers retroactively on their overall time if they don’t swim within a range of the time submitted.  Maybe this would clean up the issue.

Anyway, my swim time ended up being 40^th fastest of the day out of the 420 racers but would have clearly been even better if I didn’t have to maneuver my way around the liars. 

The Bike

After a quick run through the transition area, I threw on my sunglasses, helmet, and biking shoes and took off.  I absolutely hammered on the bike.  My legs felt really strong and I was in attack mode for the entire 14 miles of the ride.  Here's a pic:

The first half of the course was into the wind and slightly uphill but I was still cruising.  I saw riders ahead of me and I was determined to make up time and pass them.  One by one I started catching the leaders in front of me and then blowing right by.  

As I approached, I was talking out loud to myself in pure meat head style saying things like “this dude better be in good shape or I’m going right by.”  A few seconds later when I closed the gap and made the pass, I would say things under my breath like… “You may want to hit the gym.”  Clearly, I’ll do anything to motivate myself.

I’m not sure why, but I love the feeling I get when passing someone and acting as if I’m not even working that hard.  It demoralizes them but makes me smile.  Sometimes I like to say “good job” to people as I pass.  They don’t know I’m being sarcastic. 

By the end of the ride, I had passed more than 25 people and hadn’t been passed once.  I ended up going 37:33 for a 14 mile bike ride…averaging 22.4 miles per hour which was good for 28^th fastest out of the 420 on the day.

My time for the bike was by far my best ever for that distance so there’s no doubt my 4-5 hours per week of cycling are paying off.  Based on my crazy improvements, I’m half-expecting the US Doping Agency to press charges against me…

The Run

I hopped off the bike, put on my running shoes, and off I went on the run.  I knew I was having a great race and only had a 5k run standing between me and my goal of a top 15% finish overall.  I studied the course online before the race (if you remember, some dude told me to go the wrong direction on the run last time) so I was sure nothing like that would happen again.

I started out the first mile at about 7:50/mile pace thinking I would turn it on at the end.  One by one though, people from behind started catching up and going by.  I wasn’t running that slowly but there were clearly some really strong runners who were sustaining better than 7 minute / mile pace.  I wanted to go faster but my legs wouldn’t allow it.  I basically kept my pace through the whole 5k but never had the kick at the end I was hoping for.

I finished the run in 24:35, a 7:55/mile pace but only 138^th best time of the day…pretty weak performance by me on the run for sure.

The Proof

Overall, my time for the entire race was 1:08:42, which was 52^nd out of 420 and good enough for top 12.4% so I made my goal of top 15%.  

Just to get the proof out of the way, below is a link with the official race results.  If you remember, for each of the 35 goals I achieve, I either need video evidence, a link to official race results, or a witness.  For triathlons, the easiest is to just post the official results so here you go:

http://www.fsseries.com/uploads/6162012203739_3ps_tri_overall.pdf

Back to the Question

I almost forgot why I started this post…I was supposed to write about why some people are never satisfied.  I’ll offer up 4 potential explanations and then see which apply to why I didn’t feel satisfied with my performance.

Explanation 1:  The goal was set too easy, so never felt like an accomplishment when achieved

The race on Saturday was my 6^th Sprint Triathlon.  Check out the results:

As you can see, before I started Schmeis35for35, I had only cracked the top 30% overall once in a race.  Given that, setting a goal of top 15% was fairly aggressive so I’m pretty sure the goal wasn’t too easy.   I’m going to rule this out.

Explanation 2:  A subset of the performance caused the dissatisfaction

This one clearly played a part in how I felt.  While I was pleased with the bike and swim, my run was terrible.  I have yet to put a complete race together where I felt like I was at the top of my game in all 3 sports. 

Sometimes in life, it’s easy to focus too much on the 1% of things not going right and not enough on the 99% of things that are going really well.  I’m definitely guilty here.

Explanation 3:  The act of accomplishing a goal changed your mind about what’s possible and therefore what would make you satisfied.

Have you ever thought how happy you would be if you could just land a certain job, move to another house, make a certain amount of money, etc.?  What usually happens?  For me, I find that once I get there I continue to need more to feel satisfied.  What I thought would make me satisfied is no longer good enough once I get it.  I thought top 15% would be great but once I was able to do it, my perspective changed.

The irony with this is the only way to improve is to not be satisfied but the only way to be happy is to stop and enjoy what you have. 

Explanation 4:  Some people get enjoyment from reaching the goal while others gets enjoyment out of constantly being on the journey. 

I’m convinced some people won’t be satisfied with any destination.  These types of people may think they’ll be satisfied when they reach a certain point, but they’re really only happy when they’re on the move…the journey is what keeps them going.

The great philosopher Miley Cyrus sums this up well… “There's always gonna be another mountain. I'm always gonna wanna make it move. Always gonna be an uphill battle, and sometimes I'm gonna have to lose. It ain't about how fast I get there, Ain't about whats waiting on the other side. It's the climb.”

That was so awesome…I just quoted a Miley Cyrus song.  By the way, that video literally has like 200 Million You Tube views.  Unreal. 

Summing it Up

Quick thought experiment:  Do you know people that seem more satisfied than you?  If yes, would you trade lives with any of those people?

If you’re anything like me, you may think some others appear more satisfied but you wouldn’t trade places with any of them.  That’s a pretty interesting thought which makes me wonder if the real question/answer is something much deeper…

Does everyone even have the capacity to be fully satisfied?

Schmeis

The Return of Lance Armstrong...to Triathlons

When Lance Armstrong was only 16, he was already a professional Triathlete…and a really good one.  Soon after turning pro, he was ranked #1 nationally in the 19 and under age group.  The dude was a stud high school swimmer, great runner, and obviously had ridiculous talent on the bike.  

Despite being a 3-sport machine, he announced his first “retirement” late in his teenage years when he decided to give up Triathlons and focus full time on cycling.  Unless you live under a rock, you know he went on to become the most famous cyclist and one of the most recognizable athletes in the country over the next 15 years.

In 2005, Armstrong announced his first retirement from professional cycling.  It was tough to blame him.  After beating testicular cancer and winning 7 straight Tour de France titles, it’s tough to imagine what else he had left to prove.  I guess both Lance and Michael Jordan have taught us that there’s only so much you can dominate before calling it quits.  As a side note, I personally disagree with both Lance and MJ here.  I’m completely fine dominating indefinitely…but hey, that’s just me. 

As another sidenote, Wikipedia tells me that one of Lance’s nicknames is “Juan Pelota.”  For those who didn’t take Spanish in high school…”pelota” means “ball” in Spanish.  Remember, he had testicular cancer and goes by Juan Pelota.  How comical is that?

Anyway, 3 years after his first retirement from cycling, Lance began a ridiculous comeback that saw him capture 3^rd in the 2009 Tour de France and 23^rd in 2010.

Finally, in February, 2011 he called it quits “for good.”  He called this retirement 2.0.  He was 39, not getting any younger, and apparently ready to move on with his life.

So what does Lance do in his “retirement?”  Kick back on the beach?  Watch some TV? 

Unless you follow him closely, you probably haven’t heard much from him over the last year.  What many people don’t know is he started training for arguably one of the most difficult endurance races in the world…the Ironman Triathlon (2.4 mile swim, 112 mile bike, 26.2 mile run).

Yes, after 20+ years off, Lance is making a comeback on the Triathlon scene.  Triathlon is already one of the fastest growing sports in the country (off a relatively small base) but the sport is finally getting a recognizable face that is likely to take it to the next level in popularity.

So far this year, Lance has competed in several half Ironman events.  You remember all about the half Ironman, right?  You know, the one that pretty much killed me on Cinco de Mayo where my leg cramps were so bad I literally had tears coming down my face as I crossed the finish line. 

Well, he doesn’t appear to be struggling like me.  In fact, Lance has won his last 2 Half Ironman events with beyond ridiculous times.  He finished Half Ironman Florida in 3 hours and 45 minutes…11 minutes faster than the 2^nd place finisher.  As a point of reference, I finished White Lake Half Ironman in 6 hours and 10 minutes...ummmm, apparently I’ve got some improving to do.

For a full breakdown of Lance vs. Schmeis, here is an official Tale of the Tape that some company called “Busy Notepads” must have put together.

A 32 resting heart rate?  Yes, that isn't a typo.  I’m thinking he’s in pretty good cardio shape, but at least I smell better.  Anyway, let’s go a bit deeper here into the swim, bike, and run.

On the swim, his pace over the entire 1.2 miles is about 1:08 / 100 yards.  For some perspective, one of my Schmeis35for35 goals is to swim 100 yards under 1:10.  In other words, his pace over the entire 1.2 mile swim is faster than my goal for sprinting 100 yards.  Insane.

How about the bike?  For the 56 mile bike portion of the race, Lance averaged 27.6 mph.  Again, for some perspective, one of my other 35 goals is to bike 1 mile in less than 2 minutes and 15 seconds…26.7 mph.  Are you kidding me?  He can sustain a faster pace over 56 miles than I can for 1 mile.  Ridiculous…how does he do it?

For those of you who use a stationary bike at the gym, see if there is a power meter on the bike.  Many bikes will tell you the Watts you are pushing as a measure of power.  When I started biking 6 months ago, I had very little leg strength and was averaging in the low 100s over the course of a 1 hour spin class.  Today, I can sustain 230 Watts over an hour.  As for Lance?  He can sustain ~500 Watts over an hour and he only weighs 157 pounds.  I can’t begin to describe how crazy that is.  Again, those numbers may not mean anything to you now but please get on a bike at the gym and see for yourself what that would be like.  Incredible. 

Let’s move on to the run.  Another of my 35 goals is to run 1 mile in 5 min 30 seconds.   That’s a pretty damn fast mile for someone who doesn’t have a running background.  Lance’s pace?  5 min 48 sec / mile over the course of 13.1 miles.  Keep in mind, this is how fast he runs immediately after he swims the 1.2 miles and then cranks out 56 miles on the bike.  I’m just trying to run 1 mile with fresh legs at that pace. 

So basically, my sprint pace for a short swim, bike, and run is equivalent to what Lance can do for the ENTIRE Half Ironman. 

What’s crazy is that everyone assumed when he started his Tri comeback that he would dominate the bike, but he isn’t just dominating the bike.  In his last win, he also had the fastest run time in the field and was 3^rd in the swim.  The guy is an absolute freak. 

His stated goal for 2012 is to win the Ironman World Championships in Kona, Hawaii in October.  First though, he is trying to qualify by collecting enough points in other Half Ironman and Full Ironman races throughout the year.  He’s competing in his first full Ironman (2.4 mile swim, 112 mile bike, 26.2 mile run) in a couple of weeks on June 24^th  in France.  Interestingly, the Tour de France starts that next week on June 30^th.  There is no way that’s a coincidence.  The guy is an animal and he wants everyone to know about it.

Breaking News

No joke, I was just winding down this post when I saw on CNN that Lance is being charged with more doping allegations from the US Anti-Doping Agency.  Nice timing.  On the plus side, I guess I feel slightly better about his times vs. mine now.  On the negative side, this is obviously devastating news for Lance.

Apparently, this agency can’t bring criminal charges but could potentially strip Lance of his 7 Tour de France titles.  To make matters worse, they have the power to ban him from future events…including Triathlons.  He is now banned from competing in the Ironman events while the investigation is pending…he can’t compete at Ironman France in less than 2 weeks. 

So what does this all mean?  Will it lead to another retirement?  Will he fight the charges and go on to win the Ironman World Championships in October?  Was he really doping?

Here’s my theory:  Lance read my blog post on motivation and had been telling himself over and over “DON’T BE A PUSSY.”  Because he’s a nice guy and didn’t want to use the P-word all the time, he preferred instead when I rearranged the letters into other Acronyms. He likely took a ride on my NASTY DOPE BUS and got busted.  Perhaps if he just focused on BUSY NOTEPADS instead none of this would have ever happened.

In any event, Lance, you motivated me.  Even if this is the end for you, I’m moving full speed ahead.  I’ve got my 3^rd Triathlon of the year this Saturday where my goal is to finish top 15%.  From there it is on to Muncie, Indiana for Half Ironman 70.3 on July 7^th where I’m looking to redeem myself from White Lake and finish in less than 6 hours.  Finally, it’s on to the ultimate test in October when I compete in my first Full Ironman.

Lance, I'll drive the NASTY DOPE BUS from here.

Schmeis

Was It Luck or Was It Skill?

10 years ago I was about to start my first class at Harvard Business School.  I was embarking on a 2-year stretch of ~750 classes where students repeatedly debate various questions about leadership, organizational structure, strategy, finance, marketing, operations, and ethics of companies and protagonists around the world.

One of the most common topics for debate was the role of luck in success.  Was the rise of “Fill in the Blank” Millionaire luck or skill/hard work? 

To me, this question was ridiculous.  I couldn’t believe the number of people arguing hard for one or the other when the clear answer (as with many questions in life) was obviously somewhere in the middle.  People like talking as if answers only have 2 possibilities and thus are binary but that is rarely the case.

As a quick digression, using the word “binary” made me think of my favorite nerd T-shirt…it’s kinda funny if you’re a math dork like me.

If you have no idea why this is funny, that’s a good thing.  This is one of the rare jokes in this world where you’re definitely cooler if you don’t get it.  For those who aren’t math geeks but are curious, “10” in binary numbers (think computers language) means 2…hence the joke.  I see you’re still not laughing.  Ok, I admit it sucks but my dad has a PhD in Math so maybe this will make him proud.  

Anyway, back to the topic…I was making the point that I don’t think success of any kind can ever be 100% attributed to luck or skill alone.  It’s always a little of both.

Are there Hedge fund managers who can consistently beat the market?  Yes.  Is it clear how much of their success is due to skill vs. luck?  Not so much.  There are many studies that have looked at just this.  It turns out that while many funds do beat the market, very few statistically have track records of outperformance that can be clearly attributed to skill. 

Since there are ~10,000 Hedge funds, it’s not hard to find a few that consistently beat the market.  If beating the market were a 50/50 proposition (a coin flip) then you’d expect ~5000 to beat the market the first year.  Out of those, half of the 5000 (~2500) would again beat the market the 2^nd year, followed by ~1250 the 3rd year, etc.  If you carry this out, you’d expect more than 150 funds to beat the market 5 years in a row…purely by luck!  Now, I’m not saying there isn’t skill involved but the role of luck on trades in terms of timing and other factors is certainly not 0.   

I’m pretty sure you won’t hear this on CNBC though.  When they have their “experts” on, it’s hilarious how they debate against each other.  One will say this is a great time to invest in the market while the other will say it’s a terrible time for the market.  A few months later, not so shockingly, one of them ended up being right!  When they invite the guests back, the “correct” one always sounds so confident as if there was never a doubt from his analysis.  Of course, the other guest attributes his incorrect forecast due to some “unforeseen” circumstances, or that he was really talking about a different time frame, etc. 

It’s very interesting that people tend to attribute positive results to their own skill and negative results to bad luck.

The book Outliers lays out a great case for the role of luck in terms of history’s wealthiest people.  In this case, Malcolm Gladwell talks about when many Billionaires were born and how that played a key role in their success.  It’s tough to argue that when you were born had anything to do with skill.  On the other hand, there were hundreds of millions of people born in the same range of dates that never ended up making Billions so it’s tough to argue that skill isn’t critically important as well.

Hold on....for a minute there I thought I was writing for the Harvard Business Review.  


Let’s move on to how luck vs. skill applies in athletics and more importantly, to Schmeis35for35.  A few examples:

·        

•       In my attempt in April to finish top 15% in a sprint triathlon, I missed it by 17 seconds but lost a full minute from someone directing me the wrong way on the running course.  Did bad luck cause me to miss the goal?  Yes.  Was it solely the reason I missed my goal?  Of course not.  If I had more skill from analyzing the course, training harder, etc. I would have been able to overcome the bad luck.

•       In my attempt to finish a Half Ironman in under 6 hours, the race happened to fall on a 95 degree day and severe cramping in my legs over the last few miles contributed to me missing the goal by 10 minutes.  A month later, NC still has yet to have a day anywhere near as hot as that day in May.  Was bad luck to blame?  Yes.  Again though, there is a gigantic skill component related to more training in hot weather that could have helped.

•       Gladwell also discusses in Outliers the role of a child’s birthday and how that seemingly meaningless date plays such a large role in how dominant the kid can become in Hockey.  The short version is that being one of the oldest kids in your class at an early age is extremely advantageous because you’re more likely to be bigger (and therefore more dominant), which leads coaches to notice you at a young age so you get better coaching, which makes you a better player, etc.  To make it to the NHL, do you only have to be born at a certain time of year?  Of course not, that’s absurd…but it doesn’t hurt.

•        Just today, Tiger Woods was trailing in the final holes of the Memorial Tournament on the PGA tour when he made a ridiculous flop shot from off the green and then went on to win the event.  Was it luck or was it skill?  Again, the only credibly answer is it’s a little of both.  He has more skill to play that shot than anyone in the world but the fact that he made it at that moment was incredibly lucky as he probably would make that 1 out of 100 times. 

There are so many good examples in the luck vs. skill debate.  I think my favorite story around the topic though involves Jason Bohn, a little-known professional golfer on the PGA tour.  

When he was in college at age 19, he paid $10 in a fundraiser for the right to hit 10 golf balls from 135 yards.  For each ball he successfully hit in a 10 foot circle, he would get a shot to participate in the semifinals of the contest the following weekend.  He ended up hitting 1 of the 10 balls in the circle and then didn’t think much about it.

The following weekend was Halloween and he went out drinking and was hung over the next morning (the day of the semifinals).  His roommate woke him up and dragged him to the course to hit his 1 shot.  There were 150 shots in the semifinals and the closest 12 to the pin got a shot in the finals.  Jason ended up hitting his shot to 3’ 8” and then headed to the driving range to take a nap while he waited to see if that was good enough to make the final 12.

After a long wait, it turns out his shot put him in the top 12 so he was on to the finals…a $1 Million hole-in-one contest.  He was a freshman at the time and his coach told him that prizes were available in the final round but if he won anything valued at more than $500 he would have to forfeit his NCAA eligibility. 

Long story short, Bohn stepped up to the 135 yard shot and he drained it!  He got a hole-in-one and won $1 Million.  

At the time, he was a red-shirt freshman who had never competed in an NCAA match.  He wasn’t even highly recruited so there was no reason to think he’d ever make a living off golf.  Still, the decision was easy.  Take the money and forget playing in college.  The $1 Million was enough to give him the freedom to leave school and pursue golf full time.  He practiced for years backed by his bankroll and is now a regular on the PGA tour and has won almost $10 Million in career earnings.  Crazy story for sure but also a great case study in the luck vs. skill debate.

In nearly all examples, in order to have huge amounts of success, having luck is necessary but not sufficient.  Skill is also always necessary but rarely sufficient.  Seem obvious?  I completely agree but it must not be given the number of arguments I heard consistently at HBS and I see from talking heads on TV.

Anyway, I clearly don’t have a real point with all of this.  I think I was just trying to somehow seamlessly transition to getting you to watch another one of my random attempts at the 35 goals.  


Next up?  Item number 5 on the list:  “Make a ½ court shot.”  You’ve got to admit, shooting a half courter in basketball seems like a perfect microcosm of the whole luck vs. skill debate.  I’m going for a 42 foot shot…half of the 84 foot regulation high school and college court.  Let’s give that a try!

BAM!  With that swish, I’m up to 6 goals accomplished and only 29 remaining.  How great would it have been if I nailed that first shot?  Legendary.  I thought for sure it was good when it left my hand but it wasn’t to be.  I was happy to drain the 5^th one though.

Now for the obvious question:  was the shot luck or was it skill?

Schmeis